Coronavirus research update

[tankkommanderParticipant 6423xp 2]

Rather than wait for the government to act we can all take sensible actions to limit out exposure, and ensure that we do nothing to put the most vulnerable in harms way.

Good to see that Iceland (shop) has arranged to open 1 hour early for elderly customers only so that they can get what they need and with less people about.

[osbad 4279xp 0]

At this time we’ve all got to work extra hard at seeing the other side of the coin as there are so many unknowns, so many variables and so many choices to make.

From an individual aspect clearly the preservation of life for oneself and one’s loved ones is paramount.  But, stepping back from that perspective, there is a recognition that however careful we are there WILL be a large number of deaths from the virus and ultimately we will all be exposed to it, so that being the case, how much disruption to society to we accept and for what level of benefit?

Those of us that run businesses or operate in the political arena need to make those fine judgements on limited information, while the general population seems to be running around like insane headless chickens, simultaneously ignoring warnings to wash their hands but buying out the local Tescos of loo roll, and expecting everything to stop in its tracks and the government to bail us all out by borrowing billions.

I am exaggerating for effect, but at some point we have to realise that some difficult decisions will have to be made, and we may not all be comfortable with them, but the people making them are human beings trying their best on limited information.

Also, a point made earlier about the banks.  Most high street banks have unilaterally offered mortgage holidays for individuals and small businesses.  If you are affected and worried and have a mortgage, contact your bank.  They will probably be able to help until you get back on your financial feet again.

The deaths are one thing and not to be minimised (I personally have asthma and have elderly parents, so am somewhat perturbed about the possibility of contracting the disease.  I am certainly not minimising the impact on individuals), but if too many businesses have gone bust in the short time because we have all had to bunker up for 3 or 4 months, then that will compound the situation, and the deaths may well likely still happen anyway.

We need to be very, very cautious about closing down economic activity too far and too fast to unless we are incredibly clear about the point, as we risk those businesses not being around when it comes time to reopen the stores, and then we will be in hock up to our eyebrows as a nation and now way of paying our way out of it.  Which would make the last 10 years of austerity, and its impact on the lives (and deaths) of many look like small beer in comparison.  Those of us old enough to remember the dark days of hyperinflation in the 70’s and having to call in the IMF for a bail out and all that followed from it, will not think this risk is one to be taken lightly.

[blinky465 17028xp 2]

Curious how high national debt and hyper-inflation are related *in the 1970s*?

I understood it was caused by a relaxation of banking rules in the early 70s and the consequent flood of cheap credit causing over-consumption – coupled with an oil crisis where prices trebled and an over-powerful trade union pushing for ever-higher wages?

We’re currently on year ten of “austerity” with a decade of wage stagnation, oil prices falling and about a quarter of the population living on zero-hours contracts in the “gig economy”. The very opposite set of circumstances to the start of the 1970s?

 

Of course maintaining a balance between keeping people safe and trying not to create a ruinous economic situation is a tough call. I don’t want to get pulled into political arguments on a forum on a website for playing with little plastic men – but the response to how the UK responds to coronovirus *is* political (and conflating two seemingly unrelated issues – increasing national debt in 2020 and hyperinflation fifty years earlier – unhelpful).

[danlee 22443xp 2]

Well the U.K. response suddenly just ramped up. Isolation for up to 12+ weeks for anyone who should normally get a flu vaccination, pregnant women, and the over 70. That’s a significant chunk of the workforce.

 

All social gatherings to be avoided – so no more gaming clubs or tournaments.

[tankkommanderParticipant 6423xp 1]

UKGE are due to make an announcement at 6pm tomorrow. Looks like they are working on dates later in the year.

I suspect Salute will struggle to go ahead as planned.

[danlee 22443xp 0]

My local club just announced they’re shutting down until this blows over.

[osbad 4279xp 0]

Game Over Man, Game Over…

No social activity for 3 months. As the government haven’t made it an instruction, just “advice”, then pubs, theatres etc will not be able to claim on insurance and many will likely go bust unless their banks are exceptionally friendly.  They will have to lay off loads of staff.  Maybe they were trying to not be authoritarian, but it really isn’t helpful.

They made the call, so fair enough, I might have wished they hadn’t yet, butI’m not a scientific expert, so I bow to their wisdom.  But I do know about small businesses and this is pretty much the worst of all worlds for them and all they employ, unless they announce some financial support.

So, on the plus side, I will get my painting backlog sorted.  However, there may be a lot fewer companies left for me to buy a new lead/plastic mountain from to replace it in three months’ time… 🙁

 

[ced1106Participant 6224xp 0]

We have a vaccine for influenza.
We do not have a vaccine for CoVid.

IMO, THAT is the difference between “the flu” and the coronavirus. Even though a flu vaccine isn’t always effective, it makes transmission of a virus more difficult. Not only can fewer people catch a virus if there’s a vaccine, the people who can catch the virus are spread out further, in effect, keeping that 6′ distance away from someone who’s infected. This also means that those who don’t have a flu shot still benefit from the vaccine because others are immune. This is called “herd immunity”.

I really wish this was stressed better by the media and government. CoVid isn’t measles, but “In the decade before 1963 when a vaccine became available, nearly all children got measles by the time they were 15 years of age. It is estimated 3 to 4 million people in the United States were infected each year. Also each year, among reported cases, an estimated 400 to 500 people died, 48,000 were hospitalized, and 1,000 suffered encephalitis (swelling of the brain) from measles.”

That’s a lot of hospital beds, and I’m still looking for studies about the long-term effects of CoVid on patients who have recovered. (BTW, Your lungs heal after you quit smoking, and, like smoking, CoVid affects the lungs. Males in China have a higher CoVid death rate, presumably because they smoke.)

Thankfully vaccine research has already started, and we’ll eventually have a vaccine.

[tankkommanderParticipant 6423xp 0]

I think the govt has not stressed ‘herd immunity’ as there is not enough evidence to support that yet. This is a new virus in humans, so it may give some immunity to those who have had it…and it may not. Or the immunity may be short term.

Without mass testing, and a test to show those who have HAD the virus and not just those that HAVE it, the data sets are incomplete.

Glad the govt finally took action. It appears that the computer models were showing 200,000 excess deaths if we had just ‘keep calm and carry on’.

Stay safe.

[ced1106Participant 6224xp 0]

> ‘herd immunity’

Just to clarify, the ‘herd immunity’ I refer to is for vaccination, not the UK announcement.

“When a high percentage of the population is vaccinated, it is difficult for infectious diseases to spread, because there are not many people who can be infected. For example, if someone with measles is surrounded by people who are vaccinated against measles, the disease cannot easily be passed on to anyone, and it will quickly disappear again. This is called ‘herd immunity’, ‘community immunity’ or ‘herd protection’, and it gives protection to vulnerable people such as newborn babies, elderly people and those who are too sick to be vaccinated. … Herd immunity only works if most people in the population are vaccinated (for example, 19 out of every 20 people need to be vaccinated against measles to protect people who are not vaccinated). If people are not vaccinated, herd immunity is not guaranteed to protect them” https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/herd-immunity

*****

As for the UK, they’ve thankfully rescinded their version of ‘herd immunity’. More details.

“The British government’s official advice to its citizens was, essentially, just to keep calm and carry on. Schools, restaurants, theaters, clubs, and sporting venues remained open; only the over-70s and those with flu-like symptoms were advised to stay at home.

On Monday night, that theory collided with the facts. A new analysis by immunologists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine of the impact of the coronavirus in Italy suggested that up to 30 percent of patients hospitalized with the virus would require intensive care treatment. Those numbers, if repeated in the U.K., would quickly overwhelm Britain’s state-run National Health Service.

Within hours of the report, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson appeared at a daily briefing at No. 10 Downing St. to reverse the herd immunity policy. Acknowledging that “drastic action” was required, Johnson announced that from now on Britons should try to work from home and voluntarily refrain from unnecessary travel and social contact.

But Johnson’s tone, Britain’s policy, and indeed the reaction of many Britons remained in strong contrast to the rest of Europe—a striking echo of the prime minister’s go-it-alone approach to Brexit earlier in the year. Johnson is now taking an approach closer to that of U.S. President Donald Trump—appealing to the public for voluntary cooperation rather than ordering it—than to that of the European Union.”

:Paywall: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/17/britain-uk-coronavirus-response-johnson-drops-go-it-alone/

*****

“One expert analysis found that creating herd immunity in the UK would require more than 47 million people to be infected. With a 2.3% fatality rate and a 19% rate of severe disease, this could result in more than a million people dying and a further eight million needing critical care.”

https://theconversation.com/the-herd-immunity-route-to-fighting-coronavirus-is-unethical-and-potentially-dangerous-133765

[totsuzenheniParticipant 5651xp 0]

You all may be interested in this look at the NHS and COVID-19 by Novara Media: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gRpxGoHyY8 .

[braydencobbyParticipant 41xp 0]

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[onlyonepinman 18060xp 0]

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