I think kickstarter depended on a stable global economy which allowed for predictable costs. Those days are gone and I’m not confident they’ll be back anytime soon. Companies will need to switch to more locally sourced materials and services which they can depend on.

It depends on the specifics of course. All digital kickstarters aren’t affected while large board games with complex international supply and distribution chains are being hammered.

Shipping costs are absolutely crippling right now – Battle Systems said in a recent video that their quarterly shipping costs had risen from £15000 to something like £80000.  I honestly can’t see any end to it either.  Not only is there still a backlog, China are still pissing about trying to get to a zero COVID state and so there’s still bottle necks there.  And then of course, just as we thought we were getting out of the woods Putin thought, “I know, let’s have a war”.  Cheers for that, dick head.

So I think lots of things currently face an uncertain and likely expensive future and certainly the old massive pile of boxes is perhaps not quite as viable any more.  Then again, I wonder if that is such a bad thing?

I think this combination of events will reduce the number and scope of larger kickstarters for some considerable period of time. If the global situation stabilises, it won’t be soon. And in that time, lots of companies will struggle, especially those trying to work out how to pay for projects already under way.

One further factor though is that I get the sense that the number of massive kickstarters over the years has meant that at least part of the market is saturated due to people running out of storage space. This doesn’t mean that no one was buying them any more, but I think at least some were buying fewer of these games and/or were more likely to sell them on. No one has room for an endless number of these huge games with boxfulls of expansions. I think this combines with increased prices and unpredictability to tip people over the edge of ‘no more’…

Though the adjustment will be painful for parts of the industry, I guess we have to hope that there will be a shift to more local production as well as to a focus on quality over mass.

One thing that the world, not just the games manufacturers, really, really needs to learn from all this:

1. Don’t centralise all of the world’s manufacturing capability in a single country

2. Especially don centralise all of the world’s manufacturing capability in China

KS has a fundamental problem that you commit to funds, during the campaign, before knowing shipping costs, when the pledge manager is opened. As another poster said, that’s fine when prices are stable. Prices aren’t stable. Reaper miniatures said they weren’t even attempting estimates, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was part of the reason why its last Bones KS made 1/3 as much as their previous ones (I’d say their lackluster variety of sculpts contributed, not that a smaller scope KS is a bad idea nowadays).

Some backers think shipping costs should be paid closer to actual shipping times. Pledge managers don’t seem to have this capability, not that they shouldn’t. But, then, you’ll still have backers upset when one company’s shipping costs are higher than another (because companies don’t tell you nor do they necessarily know how much they will subsidize shipping costs).

> Smaller, more local projects (or pure digital ones) still work out fine.

Especially with Siocast! Juegorama’s switched from China’s injection molding to Siocast, possibly in-house. Metal and resin, of course, is not cast in China, and made locally as well (although both cost more per mini than plastic, and resin has its own problems). I also got a CamelCamelCamel alert that the “ELEGOO 3D Resin Printer” has dropped in price, although China still supplies the resin. 😛 Domestic shipping can still be a pain. I doubt it’s an easy decision to set up another hub for FedEx, and fuel prices affect shipping domestically as well.

With VAT, international backers look to be getting hit the hardest. I didn’t check the location of everyone in the Mythic Anastyr KS who paid high costs for shipping, but I suspect they’re mostly international. In the USA we have free shipping thresholds with online retailers (eg. Amazon, Miniature Market, Noble Knight), but I don’t know what alternatives hobbyists overseas have to KS. I know that imported boardgames there are expensive.

3D printing projects on KS are on the rise, so I guess as 3D printers are becoming better, KS will again improve. Maybe China — or another country — will return to being a source of cheap plastics. Or maybe some other major change will happen that happens to affect KS. I’m looking forward to British police boxes that you can put three room’s of plastic miniatures in, myself. 😛

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/us-import-demand-drops-off-a-cliff

Things with freight and shipping are starting to normalize.   Which means shipping prices may begin to fall, most likely not overnight.  But things are beginning to work themselves out.

Well if you read the article.

“The “container surge” that many have been expecting from Shanghai (thought to be building during the lockdowns) appears to have mostly already been rerouted through the Port of Ningbo (yellow). With access to the Port of Shanghai being largely blocked due to landside restrictions (i.e., road closures), shippers were quick to reroute volumes through the closest alternate major port to the Port of Shanghai (red). ”

Why does anyone thing companies are just going to halt everything and wait for China to lift restrictions.   They arent.  They have been working hard the last few years doing nothing but setting up alternative routes for their products.  They learn.  They adapt.   Lol.

In fact most companies have now developed more rebust shipping procedures during these trying times, back up plans and back up back up plans.

All I am saying is the more things change, the more the stay the same.   Big box games may see a drop for awhile, but they will come back.  Where there is money there are ways.