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I can only speak for my own purchasing pattern and Brexit has effected my choices. With 25% import tax and if the order is above roughly 170 euro an extra customs charge, I have found myself looking for miniatures from EU based shops. This has resulted in me choosing not to purchase from smaller miniature companies. It is sad, because I mostly find the smaller independent companies’ miniatures more interesting. The added import tax has also made ebay purchases less viable for me. Even “cheap” Lledo cars are now more expensive than buying new 1/48 scale models or Rubicons 1/56 models from EU online shops.
If smaller miniatures companies didn’t apply VAT to my purchases I would probably keep on buying from them. A 6% increase in cost is okey to me, but paying both UK tax and Swedish tax is just a bit too much. Still if there is a really nice mini I might still buy it. But Ive found myself adding minis to a cart only to in the end decide to get something without a 25% import tax on top of the cost at the bottom line.
Since I tend to like old school minis and games, the Brexit effect on my hobby has been significant.