given that D&D started life as a modification of the chainmail wargame rules … of course there’s parallels to be had.

I’d argue that a system like that is over complicating things for the sake of making things appear more realistic.

The key questions to answer are always these :

1. do I hit him
2. how much damage do I do

You can split that first part into all sorts of rolls for ranged attacks (and they have their equivalent for melee combat too) :

1. do I see him
2. does my arrow hit the target
3. does it penetrate his armour
4. can he see/notice it at all so he could dodge it ?
5. does he dodge it  ?

And for damage you’d probably break it down into

1. how much potential damage do I do
2. how much does his armour absorb
3. how much does his natural armour absorb (ie : is there a minimum threshold ?)

Breaking it down like that would have the advantage of being able to tweak the statistics perfectly.
However when the net statistic ends up to be x% regardless of whether he has armour or he dodges or a combination of both … it adds more effort for very little reward. And that is if you can automate the heck out of the charts/spreadsheets required to calculate the target numbers so players don’t have to do that part …

I admit that it does feel more satisfying to know that your defense doesn’t depend on a single roll of the dice.
And the same thing is true if you’re trying to make a low probability shot that initial feeling of ‘I got this’ is kind of cool.
However at the opposite end you get the “this should be easy … why am I still rolling dice / why did I fail that final roll” thing that can annoy the heck out of you.

The only reason you’d want to know if a ranged attack hit is if there are any effects that need explaining.
Does the armour degrade ?
Does getting hit with certain projectiles matter ? (damage to armor or sneaky poison that seeps under your armor ?)

IF there is a thing that RPG’s could learn from wargames it is that you shouldn’t over engineer combat related systems.
The detail is nice if you’re at the final duel with the evil boss.
It sucks when you’re fighting your way through dozens of his minions and would want to resolve this before the next decade.

Heck … I think there are a few things that wargames can learn from RPG’s : the concept of minions (who ‘die’ as soon as they get hit) vs bosses (who can take a bit more damage). Time saving mechanics / rules to use when ‘minor’ elements are engaged in conflict so you can focus on the ‘important’ bits …