I feel like we’re confusing “disruption” with “the main means of delivering via alternative methods”.

MP3s were disruptive in the late 90s. Apple didn’t catch on to putting them in an easily-accessible online database for a few years. Even then, an iPod original cost $399 – $499 and was only taken up by the “niche users” in an already niche market.

Creators releasing minis via .stl is already disrupting the market. Even some of the “bigger boys” (outside GW) are slowly releasing their back catalogue of minis online via monthly Patreons and selling through myminifactory and GumRoad etc.

Every argument to date against the idea of .stls being disruptive is based on the idea that until it’s the only means of getting hold of minis, it’s not important. That it’s only a tiny minority of people embracing the idea, or that the technology required is (relatively) expensive is simply repeating the timeline of MP3s (though $200 for a 3d printer vs $499 for an iPod makes it look a lot cheaper than getting started with “mainstream MP3s” in the early ’00s).

Now it’s not a massive market (like music is) but a substantial number of people interested in miniatures and terrain are taking a serious look at 3d printers. I’ve been in a few 3d printing groups for over a year now, to share what I’ve learned through experience – the number of “newbies” to each group is growing exponentially; while that’s still a tiny overall number of people, it represents an acceleration of growth.

My opinion is that 3d printing is already disrupting the industry – but it’s very early days.

Yes, it’s possible it might fizzle out and prove to be a “flash in the pan” that goes out of fashion. But looking at digital music, it took many years to gain mainstream acceptance. I feel 3d printing (particularly in this hobby field) will follow a similar trajectory. Some of us are partying like it’s 1999. The rest will catch up 😉