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@limburger I see these things from the retailers point of view as well as the gamers. Before WHFB there was what? Before 40K? Killing WHFB created the opportunity for KOW and others that AoS didn’t kill. The return of WHFB could though. Easily. I saw what happened from the retailers side when WHFB died and it wasn’t pretty. All the systems that came after have risen and fallen in the space of a WHFB edition.
It was obvious to everyone in the retail side of the industry that AoS was a collosal cluster-fudge. Before 2nd edition we couldn’t give AoS away at half price, and anyone buying it was using it for KoW.
Then there was the success of KoW. In many conventions there were hundreds of KoW players and elsewhere, places that had previously had hundreds of WHFB players, were trying to decide whether or not to cancel AoS events due to lack of interest. Hobbiests loved the Old World and where possible they wanted it to continue, so it appeared in KoW.
The other thing that many people without the retailers perspective wouldn’t realise is how much impact licencing had. When Warhammer Total War came out there was a pamphlet in the box saying sometime like “You’ve played the game, look at the models” and it was the picture of an Empire vehicle. What freaked more than a few retailers out was how many people who had no idea about the mini games came in and asked, only to be disappointed to find out the game and the setting it was in was dead.
Go back 10 years and GW dominated the historical rules scene for ancients, dark ages, medieval, Wild West and WWI too. If they had produced historicals in 28mm I doubt companies like Warlord would exist. If they hadn’t given up rank and flank fantasy combat I doubt Mantic would still exist. They created gaps and Ex-GW staff (and others) filled them. Like the late Roman Empire in retreat they let the barbarians in. The Evil Empire started to collapse.
The reality is that Bad old GW is only 5 years dead. No social media, telling customers they were idiots, refusing to resurrect old favourites. There was nothing wrong with AoS, no need for a points system. No-one wants to use the old minis! Oh and anyone that thinks we are losing money is a fool! But they did lose money. Old favourites did get revived. Social media was embraced and AoS 2nd Ed tore the initiative out of the other companies hands and left it with GW once again. As they reclaim fantasy football, skirmish games, Epic scale warfare and LotR, I fully expect them to re-conquer Rank and Flanks warfare and possibly even things like fleet warfare (BFG, Mo’W). They will continue to delve into cards, RPGs, board games, computer games, movies and more. The only real questions for me is when, are they quality products and whether a resurgent GW is the in the industry’s best interests.